Polymarket Trader

laidaodao

0x7f9b4b224de82852c1caab5181e533e1d573fa2e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $8.24K
Realized PnL: $0
Win rate: Unavailable
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 0
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $2.25K
Potential payout: $2.72K
Potential profit: $476.53
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$40.85

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $1.83K
Potential payout: $1.83K
Potential profit: $2.75
User PnL: $0.92

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $1.14K
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $27.47
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$1.44

Yes position

Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $8.13
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $1.08K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $499.12
Potential payout: $811.58
Potential profit: $312.46
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$8.95

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $639.82
Potential payout: $659.27
Potential profit: $19.45
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.67

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $13.35
Potential payout: $525.57
Potential profit: $512.22
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $194.57
Potential payout: $499.55
Potential profit: $304.98
Multiplier: 2.57x
User PnL: $1.72

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $5.56
Potential payout: $358.96
Potential profit: $353.4
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $7.02
Potential payout: $311.98
Potential profit: $304.96
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$0.16

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $220.39
Potential payout: $249.03
Potential profit: $28.64
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $24.92
Potential payout: $203.42
Potential profit: $178.5
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$3.56

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $184.67
Potential payout: $185.13
Potential profit: $0.46
User PnL: -$0.09

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $180.93
Potential payout: $182.21
Potential profit: $1.28
User PnL: $0.73

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $174.25
Potential payout: $174.51
Potential profit: $0.26
User PnL: -$0.09

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 85.6%
Current value: $135.86
Potential payout: $158.72
Potential profit: $22.86
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $16.26

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $132.83
Potential payout: $136.31
Potential profit: $3.48
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.66

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $100.78
Potential payout: $108.95
Potential profit: $8.17
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89.8%
Current value: $97.46
Potential payout: $108.59
Potential profit: $11.13
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $97.27
Potential payout: $106.89
Potential profit: $9.62
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.78

No position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.1%
Current value: $96
Potential payout: $105.38
Potential profit: $9.38
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $15.17

No position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $95.61
Potential payout: $96.04
Potential profit: $0.43
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $40.19
Potential payout: $94.57
Potential profit: $54.38
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$0.58

No position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $67.95
Potential payout: $69.3
Potential profit: $1.35
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.31

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No closed positions returned for this trader.

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

No 97.1% 38.29 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 76.7% 3.51 shares
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?

No 99.6% 5.45 shares
Netanyahu out by June 30?

No 99.7% 90 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 75.1% 10 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

No 99.6% 74.99 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 84% 104.17 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 84% 119.04 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 84% 119.04 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 84% 119.04 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

No 99.8% 5.82 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

No 99.8% 100.2 shares