Polymarket Trader

miguel03

0x803f5027e592523b51fd1aa8c509991d7c4bf6ed

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.7K
Realized PnL: $856.96
Win rate: 58.3%
Open positions: 4
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $1.75K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $250
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $215

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $1.31K
Potential payout: $1.55K
Potential profit: $240.64
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $456.04

Yes position

Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $357
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $343
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: $199.31

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $282.45
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $217.55
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$22.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $755.99

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $601.2

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $299.36

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.05

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.7

No position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151

No position

Starmer out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149.85

Under position

Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98

No position

US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.8

Yes position

Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.74

No position

Iran leadership change by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.05

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.95

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$23.8

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$40.8

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$44.9

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$52.8

No position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$137.6

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$202.01

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$300.8

No position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$495.03

No position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$749.99

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Yes 61% 500 shares
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Yes 22.5% 700 shares
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

No 62% 208 shares
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Yes 61% 30.64 shares
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5

Under 51% 200 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 50.6% 1,162.78 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 68% 947 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 95% 345 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 95% 500 shares
Iran leadership change by December 31?

No 66% 664 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Yes 17.4% 656.06 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Yes 15.4% 557 shares