sinnoh

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $3.22
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $107.89
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: $2.22

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $10.68
Potential payout: $54.05
Potential profit: $43.38
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: $0.68

Yes position

Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $27.7
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 88.9%
Current value: $22.99
Potential payout: $25.88
Potential profit: $2.89
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $15.36
Potential payout: $23.45
Potential profit: $8.09
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.36

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $16.8
Potential payout: $18.77
Potential profit: $1.97
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $11.47
Potential payout: $18.06
Potential profit: $6.59
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $1.47

No position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $14.8
Potential payout: $17.11
Potential profit: $2.31
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $10.43
Potential payout: $14.49
Potential profit: $4.06
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $5.36
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $8.93
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $0.36

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $13.12
Potential payout: $14.18
Potential profit: $1.06
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $9.93
Potential payout: $13.99
Potential profit: $4.06
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

Implied probability: 73.7%
Current value: $9.74
Potential payout: $13.21
Potential profit: $3.47
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $3.16
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $9.62
Potential payout: $12.82
Potential profit: $3.21
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Will USD/CAD hit 1.42 (High) in 2026?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $9.82
Potential payout: $11.76
Potential profit: $1.94
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $9.94
Potential payout: $11.76
Potential profit: $1.82
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $10.7
Potential payout: $11.63
Potential profit: $0.93
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.7

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $5.89
Potential payout: $11.22
Potential profit: $5.33
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$0.11

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $9.83
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $1.28
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $9.28
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $1.83
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.72

No position

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $9.95
Potential payout: $10.99
Potential profit: $1.04
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $6.49
Potential payout: $10.64
Potential profit: $4.15
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $1.49

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $10.1
Potential payout: $10.58
Potential profit: $0.48
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.64

Minnesota Lynx position

Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77

Toronto Tempo position

Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.97

No position

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.71

Yes position

Brazil to score first vs. Haiti?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.68

Boston Red Sox position

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

Toronto Blue Jays position

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.59

New York Yankees position

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

Arizona Diamondbacks position

Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.14

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 6.9%
Multiplier: 14.60x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.98

Indiana Fever position

Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5)