Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $193.65
- Potential payout
- $2.98K
- Potential profit
- $2.79K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$1.41K
Polymarket Trader
overestimated-crow
0x80ff5e3e5bf78e294cc08e0be6f5dcea762c0921
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $264.16
- Realized PnL
- $941.76
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.34K
- Potential profit
- $1.34K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.7%
- Current value
- $70.51
- Potential payout
- $730.63
- Potential profit
- $660.12
- Multiplier
- 10.36x
- User PnL
- -$29.45
Yes position
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $465.12
- Potential profit
- $465.12
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $96.67
- Potential profit
- $96.67
- User PnL
- -$7
No position
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $73.17
- Potential profit
- $73.17
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.72
- Potential profit
- $41.72
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $41.67
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.65
- Potential profit
- $24.65
- User PnL
- -$3.43
No position
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $7
- User PnL
- -$1.76
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $272.87
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $236.19
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.25
Down position
Solana Up or Down on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $148.24
No position
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.19
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.62
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.71
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.4
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6?
Ends Jan 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.18
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.41
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: November
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
No position
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.87
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 11?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.13
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.57
No position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.98
Yes position
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.86
No position
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.58
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.77
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 13.7% 730.63 shares
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 45% 181.81 shares
- Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes 8% 100 shares
- Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes 10% 100 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 62% 1,612.9 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No 41.9% 2,235.88 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No 31.3% 2,235.89 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Yes 72.3% 1,091.17 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Yes 92% 1,091.17 shares
- Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes 4.3% 465.12 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1?Yes 11.2% 47.29 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1?Yes 13.9% 71.94 shares