Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.02K
- Potential profit
- $2.02K
- User PnL
- -$86.51
Polymarket Trader
TimeDecay
0x811fe35b4ccfb689a8bf2e144498f358ae7516e3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $17.97
- Realized PnL
- $8.33K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 38
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $829.73
- Potential profit
- $829.73
- User PnL
- -$138.29
Yes position
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $570.45
- Potential profit
- $570.45
- User PnL
- -$106.58
Yes position
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $369
- Potential profit
- $369
- User PnL
- -$114.39
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $298
- Potential profit
- $298
- User PnL
- -$212.95
No position
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $245.98
- Potential profit
- $245.98
- User PnL
- -$99.62
No position
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $148.01
- Potential profit
- $148.01
- User PnL
- -$135.74
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $17.97
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $16.89
Yes position
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.84K
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $681.45
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $514.11
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $414.89
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $221.2
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.2
No position
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.63
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125.56
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.16
No position
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.19
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.54
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.8
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.21
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.82
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.96
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.35
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.82
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.91
No position
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.86
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.8
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.79
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.97
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.73
No position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.24
No position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.22
No position
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.2
No position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $34.78
No position
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.9
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.13
Yes position
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.06
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.67
Yes position
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.39
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.52
No position
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.3
No position
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.79
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.52
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.37
No position
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.36
No position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.53
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.22
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.03
No position
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.9
No position
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.06
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.81
Yes position
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.76
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.53
No position
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.35
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $19.24
No position
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.95
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?No 22.1% 5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 6% 18 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes 70% 1,382.95 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes 62% 4,367.09 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 41.1% 2,744.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Yes 40% 449 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No 95.9% 119.8 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No 85% 93.63 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No 95.1% 99 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 59.6% 183 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No 95% 30 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No 94.9% 94.8 shares