Polymarket Trader

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0x8156e9375241b7b32a96c737dbf241f0eae66b4d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $200.2
Realized PnL: $987.86
Win rate: 73.7%
Open positions: 5
Closed positions: 19
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $51.57
Potential payout: $54
Potential profit: $2.43
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.81

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $51.36
Potential payout: $53
Potential profit: $1.64
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.27

No position

Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 83.4%
Current value: $37.51
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $7.49
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$6.91

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 86.2%
Current value: $34.05
Potential payout: $39.53
Potential profit: $5.47
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$3.74

No position

Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 88.4%
Current value: $25.71
Potential payout: $29.1
Potential profit: $3.39
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$2.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Phillies position

Mariners vs. Phillies

Ends Aug 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $767

Rays position

Rays vs. Giants

Ends Aug 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $590.95

Guardians position

Royals vs. Guardians

Ends Sep 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $524.05

Yes position

Ethereum above $2,500 on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $397.32

Twins position

Twins vs. Tigers

Ends Aug 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $302.96

Aces position

Storm vs Aces

Ends Aug 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $291.55

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.54

No position

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 98.5%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.14

No position

Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.02

Twins position

Red Sox vs. Twins

Ends Aug 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$121.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 5?

Ends Jul 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$135

White Sox position

Tigers vs. White Sox

Ends Aug 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$450

Down position

Dogecoin Up or Down on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$500

Phillies position

Padres vs. Phillies

Ends Jul 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$680.15

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Royals vs. Guardians

Guardians 53% 1,115 shares
Mariners vs. Phillies

Phillies 50% 1,534 shares
Tigers vs. White Sox

White Sox 45% 1,000 shares
Storm vs Aces

Aces 51% 595 shares
Dogecoin Up or Down on July 8?

Down 50% 1,000 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 5?

Down 50% 270 shares
Padres vs. Phillies

Phillies 48% 1,200 shares
Ethereum above $2,500 on May 16?

Yes 79% 1,892 shares