Yes position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $6.67
- Potential payout
- $63.49
- Potential profit
- $56.83
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$13.33
Polymarket Trader
0x81583B7fB99f6EaBeFe09F883b8D3a0014D9682B-1768651666368
0x81583b7fb99f6eabefe09f883b8d3a0014d9682b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $95.82
- Realized PnL
- $39.38
- Win rate
- 55.6%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 9
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $7.18
- Potential payout
- $57.45
- Potential profit
- $50.27
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.82
Yes position
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $13.44
- Potential payout
- $50.7
- Potential profit
- $37.27
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$1.56
Yes position
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?
Ends Jan 20, 2027- Implied probability
- 27%
- Current value
- $10.21
- Potential payout
- $37.8
- Potential profit
- $27.59
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- -$4.79
No position
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.3%
- Current value
- $24.63
- Potential payout
- $36.63
- Potential profit
- $12
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- $14.63
Yes position
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?
Ends Jan 19, 2027- Implied probability
- 50.2%
- Current value
- $17.15
- Potential payout
- $34.13
- Potential profit
- $16.98
- Multiplier
- 1.99x
- User PnL
- $2.15
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.26
- Potential profit
- $32.26
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
UK Recession in 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $8.4
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $21.6
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.24
- Potential profit
- $17.24
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.73
- Potential profit
- $14.73
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $6.28
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $4.83
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $1.28
Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $5.78
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $1.06
- Potential payout
- $4.17
- Potential profit
- $3.1
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.6%
- Current value
- $0.35
- Potential payout
- $1.68
- Potential profit
- $1.34
- Multiplier
- 4.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.65
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.43
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.52
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.94
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.51
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$9.43
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 14% 35.71 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 97.6% 14.28 shares
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 24% 4.17 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 23% 21.74 shares
- Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?Yes 97% 26.31 shares
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 45% 11.11 shares
- Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes 58% 71.42 shares
- Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?Yes 43.2% 11.57 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Yes 22% 22.75 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 58% 17.24 shares
- Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?Yes 38% 26.32 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No 59.4% 1.68 shares