Yes position
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.6%
- Current value
- $665.5
- Potential payout
- $14.63K
- Potential profit
- $13.96K
- Multiplier
- 21.98x
- User PnL
- -$334.48
Polymarket Trader
NiezlyHarpagan
0x821f7288f5043da0cafc084c86e0f5ca435c3084
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.72K
- Realized PnL
- $291.11
- Win rate
- 41.7%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $326.23
- Potential payout
- $2.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.85K
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$173.77
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.4K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $119.47
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.02K
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$180.53
Yes position
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $81.41
- Potential payout
- $814.12
- Potential profit
- $732.71
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$18.59
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.2%
- Current value
- $103.68
- Potential payout
- $640
- Potential profit
- $536.32
- Multiplier
- 6.17x
- User PnL
- -$246.32
Yes position
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $339.24
- Potential payout
- $579.9
- Potential profit
- $240.66
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $40.24
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $468.75
- Potential profit
- $468.75
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $80
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $320
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- -$20
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.33
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.33
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.33
Yes position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.29
No position
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.33
No position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.18
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.37
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.42
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.52
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
No position
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will DIPA win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 6, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will DNM (DEK) win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will VOLT win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will India strike Pakistan by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12.25
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$31.08
Yes position
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 24% 400 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 54.7% 640 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 32% 468.75 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 48% 208.33 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 25% 400 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Yes 14.3% 1,401.61 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No 85.8% 515.05 shares
- Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 8.7% 5,752.71 shares
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Yes 84.4% 355.29 shares
- Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Yes 31.4% 637.79 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No 93% 215.05 shares
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Yes 56.4% 354.9 shares