spongebobs

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $386.9
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $803.57
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$113.09

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $990.29
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $91.99
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$9.71

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $832.15
Potential payout: $909.45
Potential profit: $77.3
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $32.15

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $801.12
Potential payout: $875.54
Potential profit: $74.42
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.12

No position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $438.08
Potential payout: $453.73
Potential profit: $15.65
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $38.08

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $30.52
Potential payout: $321.28
Potential profit: $290.76
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$119.48

No position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $311.35
Potential payout: $313.54
Potential profit: $2.19
User PnL: $11.35

No position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $253.8
Potential payout: $305.79
Potential profit: $51.98
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $53.81

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $294.19
Potential payout: $294.19
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $94.19

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $140.24
Potential payout: $243.9
Potential profit: $103.66
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $40.24

No position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $138.07
Potential payout: $220.77
Potential profit: $82.7
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$61.93

No position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $212.2
Potential payout: $219.78
Potential profit: $7.58
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $12.2

No position

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $210.07
Potential payout: $218.82
Potential profit: $8.75
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $10.07

No position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $216.73
Potential payout: $218.48
Potential profit: $1.75
User PnL: $16.73

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $145.37
Potential payout: $185.19
Potential profit: $39.81
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $45.37

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $121.05
Potential payout: $131.58
Potential profit: $10.53
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $21.05

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $117.05
Potential payout: $120.48
Potential profit: $3.43
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $17.05

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $108.7
Potential payout: $108.7
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $8.7

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $98.7
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $1.3
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $23.7

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $87.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$17.5

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $3.96
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $37.71
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$6.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38K

Yes position

Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $616.34

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $365.5

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.57

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $232.01

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.27

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.05

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.01

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.12

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.3

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.42

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.95

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.82

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.83

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.46

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.75

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.53

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.18

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?