No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $11.61
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.69
Polymarket Trader
nsd22
0x823350329944b59d65808e887b974bbc14fe7fa2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $40.92
- Realized PnL
- $11.35
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $10.05
- Potential payout
- $10.99
- Potential profit
- $0.93
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.31
- Potential profit
- $10.31
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $4.98
- Potential payout
- $5.11
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $2.96
- Potential payout
- $3.13
- Potential profit
- $0.18
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.56
- Potential profit
- $2.56
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $2.36
- Potential payout
- $2.45
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.36
Yes position
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.38
- Potential profit
- $2.38
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $1.9
- Potential payout
- $2.3
- Potential profit
- $0.4
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $2.08
- Potential payout
- $2.3
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.92
- Potential payout
- $1.92
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.92
Yes position
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.39
- Potential payout
- $1.39
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $0.96
- Potential payout
- $1.19
- Potential profit
- $0.23
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $0.72
- Potential payout
- $1.15
- Potential profit
- $0.43
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.07
Yes position
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.54
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 10?
Ends Nov 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
Yes position
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1%
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 6?
Ends Nov 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?Yes 42% 2.38 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Yes 72% 1.39 shares
- Will United States win on 2026-07-06?Yes 39% 2.56 shares
- Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?Yes 52% 1.92 shares
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No 94.7% 2.13 shares
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No 89.5% 3.11 shares
- Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 98.9% 6 shares
- Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 99.1% 7 shares
- Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 99.2% 8 shares
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 99.1% 9 shares
- Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 99.1% 10 shares
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 99% 13 shares