Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Current value
- $1.15
- Potential payout
- $38.46
- Potential profit
- $37.31
- Multiplier
- 33.33x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Polymarket Trader
0x8242...0f3c
0x8242a0899ad50231a13e4dc401d1bfbbf3f60f3c
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $80.87
- Realized PnL
- $647.28
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $3.81
- Potential payout
- $30.51
- Potential profit
- $26.7
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.19
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $6.22
- Potential payout
- $21.84
- Potential profit
- $15.61
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$3.78
Yes position
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.6%
- Current value
- $0.53
- Potential payout
- $20.41
- Potential profit
- $19.88
- Multiplier
- 38.46x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 41.1%
- Current value
- $7.98
- Potential payout
- $19.43
- Potential profit
- $11.46
- Multiplier
- 2.44x
- User PnL
- $0.47
Yes position
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $18.49
- Potential profit
- $18.48
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.99
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $13.46
- Potential payout
- $16.31
- Potential profit
- $2.86
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $2.19
Yes position
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $0.51
- Potential payout
- $15.98
- Potential profit
- $15.47
- Multiplier
- 31.25x
- User PnL
- -$1.49
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $3.45
- Potential payout
- $15.33
- Potential profit
- $11.88
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$2.55
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $15.02
- Potential payout
- $15.15
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- User PnL
- $0.71
Yes position
Kash Patel out by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.7%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $14.91
- Potential profit
- $13.46
- Multiplier
- 10.31x
- User PnL
- -$0.55
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $2.48
- Potential payout
- $14.18
- Potential profit
- $11.7
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $0.48
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $2.24
- Potential payout
- $13.56
- Potential profit
- $11.32
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.92
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $11.02
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.91
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $0.56
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $10.56
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.44
Yes position
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $2.16
- Potential payout
- $10.81
- Potential profit
- $8.65
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.84
No position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $7.03
- Potential payout
- $9.56
- Potential profit
- $2.53
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $8.2
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.86
Yes position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $4.24
- Potential payout
- $8.07
- Potential profit
- $3.83
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.76
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.1%
- Current value
- $1.54
- Potential payout
- $7.3
- Potential profit
- $5.76
- Multiplier
- 4.74x
- User PnL
- -$2.46
Yes position
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.7%
- Current value
- $5.52
- Potential payout
- $6.02
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.52
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $5.74
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$0.86
Yes position
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $0.48
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.53
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $4.33
- Potential profit
- $3.66
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $206.67
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.59
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.36
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.52
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.34
No position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.93
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.72
Yes position
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.66
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.22
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.66
No position
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.05
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.67
Yes position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.97
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.29
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.12
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.44
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.76
Yes position
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.69
No position
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.62
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.47
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.14
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.05
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.8
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.56
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?No 45% 2.22 shares
- Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?No 46% 2.17 shares
- Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Yes 91.9% 1.09 shares
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes 59% 1.69 shares
- Kash Patel out by July 31?Yes 14.9% 6.71 shares
- Kash Patel out by July 31?Yes 12.2% 8.2 shares
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes 52% 1.92 shares
- Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes 36% 2.78 shares
- Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No 41% 2.44 shares
- Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes 88% 1.14 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 83% 8.2 shares
- Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes 2.6% 38.46 shares