No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.55K
- Potential profit
- $50.55K
- User PnL
- -$626.26
Polymarket Trader
TraderQuant
0x8250e5832a8c4659005114cc048c2c12d8f5743f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.03K
- Realized PnL
- $4.54K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $1.06K
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $11.22
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $57.12
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $824.3
- Potential payout
- $910.83
- Potential profit
- $86.53
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $43.64
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $535.66
- Potential payout
- $541.07
- Potential profit
- $5.41
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $85.66
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $388.75
- Potential payout
- $391.68
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- User PnL
- $23.74
Yes position
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $333.33
- User PnL
- -$300
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $223.22
- Potential payout
- $273.92
- Potential profit
- $50.7
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $5.95
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $775.36
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $501.17
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.85
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $253.14
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $239.38
No position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $233.78
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $178.04
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $156.77
No position
Iran leadership change by March 13?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $133.95
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.58
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.22
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.71
Yes position
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.49
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.6
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.62
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.39
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.24
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.5
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.01
No position
Khamenei seen in public by February 28?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.52
Yes position
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.39
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.64
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 80% 236.56 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-22?Yes 91% 109.89 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 75% 37.36 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 0.2% 50,000 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 88.6% 144.86 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 91% 308.42 shares
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?Yes 89% 181.75 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Yes 71% 281.69 shares
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Yes 90% 333.33 shares
- Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Yes 87% 344.83 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 73.5% 845.82 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 95% 554.01 shares