Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $24.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $475.25
- Multiplier
- 20.20x
- User PnL
- $3.75
Polymarket Trader
vbm
0x8304ada4e1747a1d188d7233b5c047dfce42f086
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.21K
- Realized PnL
- $2.91K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $399.5
- Potential payout
- $470
- Potential profit
- $70.5
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $89.9
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $400.56
- Potential payout
- $425
- Potential profit
- $24.44
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $24.86
No position
Will Ukraine recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $386
- Potential profit
- $386
- User PnL
- -$94.63
Yes position
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $2.48
- Potential payout
- $380.86
- Potential profit
- $378.38
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $244.47
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $55.53
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$16.03
No position
US x China Military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $277.49
- Potential payout
- $299.99
- Potential profit
- $22.5
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $8.5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $208.15
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $21.85
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $16.05
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $181
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $19
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $195.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $4.1
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $9.9
No position
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $173.85
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $16.15
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $13.05
No position
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $165.29
- Potential payout
- $189.98
- Potential profit
- $24.7
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $20.1
No position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $158.16
- Potential payout
- $181.8
- Potential profit
- $23.63
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $28.21
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 36%
- Current value
- $57.6
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $102.4
- Multiplier
- 2.78x
- User PnL
- -$63.5
No position
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $157.41
- Potential profit
- $157.41
- User PnL
- -$52.41
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$135
No position
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $138.29
- Potential payout
- $144.13
- Potential profit
- $5.84
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $6.44
No position
Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $89.19
- Potential payout
- $142.71
- Potential profit
- $53.51
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$1.81
No position
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.4%
- Current value
- $126.56
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $13.44
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $6.6
No position
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $128.8
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $11.2
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $132.51
- Potential profit
- $132.51
- User PnL
- -$86.77
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $129.27
- Potential payout
- $131.38
- Potential profit
- $2.1
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $37.59
No position
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $129.99
- Potential profit
- $129.99
- User PnL
- -$5.83
No position
Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $109.42
- Potential payout
- $127.23
- Potential profit
- $17.81
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.26
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $279.18
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.65
Yes position
Will Trump post on X again before election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.25
Yes position
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Jan 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $163.13
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.17
Yes position
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.64
Yes position
Will Bally’s Corporation receive a license for Bally’s New York casino in The Bronx?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.28
No position
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.71
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.08
Yes position
Will Biden finish his term?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.99
No position
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.12
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.39
Yes position
North Korea missile launch by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.3
No position
Will Trump create a Bitcoin reserve in first week?
Ends Jan 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.8
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.92
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.81
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $82.9
No position
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2025?
Ends Apr 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.72
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.91
No position
Will Russia capture Uspenivka by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.74
No position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.11
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.86
No position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.06
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.12
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsAthletics 97% 20 shares
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No 97.7% 56.3 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 82% 40 shares
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?No 91% 20 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?No 98.6% 30 shares
- Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?No 93.1% 20.39 shares
- Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?No 92% 20 shares
- Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?No 88% 20 shares
- Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?No 92% 10 shares
- Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?No 88% 10 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 18, 2026?No 96.2% 10 shares
- Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?No 98.2% 30 shares