Polymarket Trader

toniel756

0x830b99b1f5754a554feced07281998bbb2930a93

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $177.59
Realized PnL: $4.92K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.12K
Potential profit: $2.12K
User PnL: -$25.58

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.6K
User PnL: -$158.77

Down position

SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $177.59
Potential payout: $755.7
Potential profit: $578.11
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $74.79

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $705.87

Yes position

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $511.77

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $478.43

No position

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $301.65

No position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 55.5%
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $263.64

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.33

No position

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $242.54

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $201.43

Yes position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180.56

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.61

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $162.64

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $146.92

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $137.74

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.23

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $118.49

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.32

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.14

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.88

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.2

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.93

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.46

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.96

No position

Will OpenAI's public ticker be $LLM?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $74.4

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

Yes 36.4% 200 shares
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Yes 66.3% 1,615.55 shares
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Yes 61.2% 515.55 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 16.6% 2,197.08 shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 2.9% 41.2 shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 3% 510.88 shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 3.5% 510.88 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Yes 7.5% 268.48 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Yes 14.8% 268.48 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 43.9% 310 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 45% 1,387.11 shares
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Down 14% 455.71 shares