0xPotash

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $2.09K
Potential payout: $2.6K
Potential profit: $507.03
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$94.81

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: Other

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $9.75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.49K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $3.75

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $22.18
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $1.41K
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$17.89

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $510.99
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $888.99
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $24.6

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 9.6%
Current value: $114.84
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 10.47x
User PnL: $14.24

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $603.74
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $446.24
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $32.47

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 81.8%
Current value: $758.4
Potential payout: $927.71
Potential profit: $169.31
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $345.46

No position

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $765.86
Potential payout: $775.94
Potential profit: $10.09
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $78.09

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $201.43
Potential payout: $649.76
Potential profit: $448.33
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: $44.21

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $128.22
Potential payout: $620.9
Potential profit: $492.68
Multiplier: 4.84x
User PnL: -$22.04

No position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $596.1
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $3.9
User PnL: $52.1

No position

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $314.21
Potential payout: $320.13
Potential profit: $5.92
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $85.43

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $219.83
Potential payout: $291.16
Potential profit: $71.33
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$4.37

No position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $216.29
Potential payout: $250.04
Potential profit: $33.76
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $32.76

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $5.94
Potential payout: $224
Potential profit: $218.06
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: -$3.4

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $199.36
Potential payout: $208.43
Potential profit: $9.07
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $61.04

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $73
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $127
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $47

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 61.7%
Current value: $123.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $76.7
Multiplier: 1.62x
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $193.8
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $6.2
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $31.8

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$61

No position

James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $95.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $4.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $5.5

No position

Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $75.32
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $4.68
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $18.68

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $10.13
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $64.88
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$10.88

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.12
Potential profit: $72.12
User PnL: -$36.98

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $233.53

Volkanovski position

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $227.21

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $210.75

Rico position

Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $196

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.79

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $177.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166.41

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149

No position

Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.64

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.36

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.12

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $134.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.28

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.93

No position

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.22

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $76.97

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $73.02

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET