Riki-Sorsan-Veli

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.98K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.5

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $3.5K
User PnL: -$17.5

Yes position

Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$5

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $1.29K
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $10.44
User PnL: $101.39

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $944.23
Potential payout: $991.32
Potential profit: $47.09
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $89.23

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $804.07
Potential profit: $804.07
User PnL: -$509.99

Yes position

Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $536.09
Potential profit: $536.09
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $15.25
Potential payout: $499.89
Potential profit: $484.64
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: $2.75

No position

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $391.3
Potential payout: $394.65
Potential profit: $3.35
User PnL: $31.3

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $10.45
Potential payout: $303.03
Potential profit: $292.58
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $109.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $190.5
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$1.5

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $285.71
User PnL: -$100

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $222.68
Potential payout: $225.73
Potential profit: $3.05
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $22.68

No position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $197.6
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $2.4
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $5.8

No position

Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $199.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0.9
User PnL: $1.3

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $182.61
Potential profit: $182.61
User PnL: -$130

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $162.36
Potential profit: $162.36
User PnL: -$137

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $9.75
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $140.25
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$5.25

Yes position

Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$83

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$18

No position

Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $415.54

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.46

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $147.21

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.05

No position

Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.99

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $100

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.24

Finland position

World Championships: Canada vs. Finland

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.08

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.01

Yes position

Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.98

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.99

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.19

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.75

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.53

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.9

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.48

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.69

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.91

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 52.3%
Multiplier: 1.91x
User PnL: $9.01

No position

Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.06

No position

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?