No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.88
- Potential profit
- $350.88
- User PnL
- -$200
Polymarket Trader
Penitent-6
0x83575b2a7928067a90abe13f708af92206bb2946
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $205.71
- Realized PnL
- $2.37K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $148.37
- Potential payout
- $326.09
- Potential profit
- $177.72
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$1.63
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $10.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $189.5
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$9.5
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $4.61
- Potential payout
- $86.21
- Potential profit
- $81.59
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $27.13
- Potential payout
- $63.83
- Potential profit
- $36.7
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$2.87
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.52
- Potential profit
- $59.52
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $2.69
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $52.86
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- -$2.31
Yes position
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $1.04
- Potential payout
- $37.04
- Potential profit
- $36
- Multiplier
- 35.71x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 38.4%
- Current value
- $9.81
- Potential payout
- $25.58
- Potential profit
- $15.77
- Multiplier
- 2.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $0.74
- Potential payout
- $20.41
- Potential profit
- $19.66
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.23
- Potential profit
- $19.23
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $0.81
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $11.69
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $519.92
Yes position
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $452.04
Eagles position
Super Bowl LIX Winner
Ends Feb 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $257.9
No position
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $249.41
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.41
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.57
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.14
No position
Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.34
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $63.92
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $59.49
No position
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.19
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
Ends Jan 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.36
Commanders position
Commanders vs. Lions
Ends Jan 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.25
PSG position
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.87
Yes position
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.16
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.41
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.31
Yes position
US recession in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.65
No position
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.13
Commanders position
Commanders vs. Buccaneers
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.83
Yes position
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?
Ends Sep 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.2
No position
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.84
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.41
Yes position
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.36
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 46% 108.7 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 46% 217.39 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No 60.1% 348.83 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No 43% 348.84 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 57% 20.54 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No 87% 172.41 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?No 52% 19.23 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 73% 20.55 shares
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 39.1% 25.58 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes 42% 59.52 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 57% 5 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 47% 63.83 shares