Polymarket Trader

YangShi-790

0x836d7e4c5c4e8f1ee847980bdd10e71322268c44

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $301.84
Realized PnL: $196.1
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $153.47
Potential payout: $177.42
Potential profit: $23.95
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $43.47

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.13
Potential profit: $78.13
User PnL: -$25

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $50.77
Potential payout: $78.12
Potential profit: $27.34
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $12.77

Yes position

China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $6.48
Potential payout: $72.02
Potential profit: $65.53
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$8.52

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.14
Potential profit: $57.14
User PnL: -$40

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $47.3
Potential payout: $47.33
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $27.3

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $40.8
Potential payout: $45.59
Potential profit: $4.79
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $9.8

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$4.4

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $3.01
Potential payout: $16.29
Potential profit: $13.28
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$5.3

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.87
Potential profit: $15.87
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.43
Potential profit: $14.43
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be less than 300k?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.7
Potential profit: $10.7
User PnL: -$4.08

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$3.7

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.77
Potential profit: $8.77
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $8
User PnL: -$2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.43

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.74

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.22

Yes position

Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.38

Yes position

Will Trump's meeting with Netanyahu not air?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.63

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.4

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8

No position

Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.71

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.24

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.14

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.95

No position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

Yes position

Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?

Ends May 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.82

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.71

Yes position

No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Ends Jan 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

No position

Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?

Ends Jun 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.84

Yes position

Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.78

Yes position

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.06

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

Yes position

India military action against Pakistan before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

No position

Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.87

Yes position

Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.85

Choi position

Landwehr vs. Choi

Ends Dec 7, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 53% 15.09 shares
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?

Yes 17.2% 20.89 shares
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

Yes 17% 9.04 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 47.6% 63.02 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

No 62% 177.42 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

No 68% 45.59 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 70% 57.14 shares
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

Yes 42% 9.05 shares
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Yes 32% 78.13 shares
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

Yes 35% 71.43 shares
Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Yes 33% 33.33 shares
Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be less than 300k?

No 1.1% 10.27 shares