No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $905
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $95
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $55
Polymarket Trader
plymktq
0x8386da3b66cf1fcff53982494d3e3417e025bb8f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.51K
- Realized PnL
- $324.7
- Win rate
- 85.7%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 14
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $956.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $43.5
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $47.5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $900
- Potential profit
- $900
- User PnL
- -$669
No position
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64%
- Current value
- $174.12
- Potential payout
- $272.06
- Potential profit
- $97.94
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- $13.04
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $218.75
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $51.25
Yes position
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $210
- Potential profit
- $210
- User PnL
- -$5.67
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Current value
- $190.71
- Potential payout
- $200.64
- Potential profit
- $9.93
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $6.12
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 90.2%
- Current value
- $180.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $19.7
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $1.1
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $43
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $157
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$47
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $167
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $33
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $19
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $189.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $10.9
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.99
No position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.4%
- Current value
- $166.8
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $33.2
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $14.8
No position
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.4%
- Current value
- $91.35
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $8.65
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $83.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $16.5
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $7.5
No position
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $69.49
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $30.51
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$2.51
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $39.5
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $10.5
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $4.5
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $4.2
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $35.8
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $30.54
- Potential payout
- $34.31
- Potential profit
- $3.77
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $2.74
Yes position
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$7.8
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.7%
- Current value
- $4.13
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $15.87
- Multiplier
- 4.84x
- User PnL
- -$0.69
No position
Will Putin visit China by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$0.13
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.5
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60
No position
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16
No position
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6
Yes position
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
Ends Aug 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- 5kt meteor strike in 2026?No 72% 22.97 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 92% 200.64 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No 95% 90 shares
- Will Trump attend his son's wedding?Yes 2.7% 210 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 82% 200 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.1% 200 shares
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?No 70% 10.45 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 88% 200 shares
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?Yes 12% 20 shares
- Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?No 69% 47.25 shares
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No 89% 20 shares
- Will Iran Play in the World Cup?Yes 87% 0.56 shares