Polymarket Trader

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0x84157f75e4ae2c27ccab9d928fe5ec557774dfe1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $5.31K
Realized PnL: $27.03K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 21
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $1.22K
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $174.9
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $438.3

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $799.5
Potential payout: $975
Potential profit: $175.5
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $307

No position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $884.68
Potential payout: $887.35
Potential profit: $2.66
User PnL: $69.76

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $658.95
Potential payout: $728.13
Potential profit: $69.17
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $157.89

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $99.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $400.25
Multiplier: 5.01x
User PnL: -$25.25

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $498
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$28

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $471.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $28.75
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $31.25

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $500
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $340

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $365.65
Potential payout: $373.88
Potential profit: $8.23
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $104.78

No position

Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $18.68
Potential payout: $345.99
Potential profit: $327.31
Multiplier: 18.52x
User PnL: -$4.29

No position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $63.94
Potential payout: $137.5
Potential profit: $73.56
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$13.06

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $80.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $19.5
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.1%
Current value: $51.66
Potential payout: $63.74
Potential profit: $12.08
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $47.77

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $49.24
Potential payout: $54.41
Potential profit: $5.17
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $47.83
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$19.03

Yes position

No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $4.48
Potential payout: $28
Potential profit: $23.52
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $0.84

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $20.57
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $1.43
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $16.61

Yes position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $6.39
Potential payout: $11.94
Potential profit: $5.55
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $1.37

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $10.92
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$2.45

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $9.38
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.05
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.65

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Nets position

Spread: Suns (-8.5)

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92K

No position

Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6K

Yes position

Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-30?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44K

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.32K

Bucks position

Bulls vs. Bucks

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14K

Bulls position

Spread: Heat (-4.5)

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14K

Pistons position

Pistons vs. Warriors

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11K

Over position

Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09K

Hornets position

Spread: Rockets (-3.5)

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

Wizards position

Spread: Pistons (-14.5)

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

No position

Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

Over position

Rangers vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

Yes position

Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-02-02?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06K

Pelicans position

Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03K

No position

Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-06?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

Binghamton Bearcats position

Bryant Bulldogs vs. Binghamton Bearcats

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Pacers position

Bulls vs. Pacers

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $999.62

Yes position

Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $991.25

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $968.37

Seahawks position

Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $954.03

Pelicans position

Grizzlies vs. Pelicans

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $942.85

Thunder position

Spread: Spurs (-10.5)

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $940

Under position

Trail Blazers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $922

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 13?

No 7% 40 shares
Government shutdown on Saturday?

Yes 85% 169.14 shares
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Yes 4.6% 26 shares
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Yes 14% 13 shares
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Yes 20% 500 shares
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?

No 48% 32.61 shares
Elon Phoenix vs. Hampton Pirates

Elon Phoenix 55% 18 shares
Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 210.5

Under 47% 99 shares
Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5

Over 57% 423 shares
Wright State Raiders vs. Robert Morris Colonials

Wright State Raiders 53% 107 shares
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Boise State Broncos: O/U 145.5

Over 44% 48 shares
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-08?

No 90% 41 shares