No position
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.22K
- Potential profit
- $1.22K
- User PnL
- -$26.27
Polymarket Trader
0x844AC1AEe4dC203080e63e650E043A8aD8145f53-1765558169086
0x844ac1aee4dc203080e63e650e043a8ad8145f53
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $609.15
- Realized PnL
- $6.06K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- User PnL
- -$707.67
Yes position
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.2%
- Current value
- $300.77
- Potential payout
- $379.76
- Potential profit
- $78.99
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$40.21
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $255.14
- Potential payout
- $313.09
- Potential profit
- $57.95
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $17.18
No position
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$87
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$66
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $11
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $89
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$39
No position
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $99.99
- User PnL
- -$65
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $42.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $7.75
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $4.75
No position
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$5.2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
Ends Jan 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $880.86
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $686.98
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $222.67
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $216.63
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $202.25
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183.86
Yes position
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.75
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
Ends Jan 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $146.94
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.63
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.34
Yes position
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.78
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $105.86
Yes position
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.4
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.79
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.47
No position
Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.03
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.59
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.24
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.35
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.19
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.66
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.65
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No 11% 100 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 7% 141.66 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?No 19% 99.98 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?No 94% 200 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?No 96% 273.27 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No 53.6% 18.55 shares
- Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?No 97.9% 100.99 shares
- Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 4.5% 211.99 shares
- Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 27% 50 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?Yes 3.3% 60 shares
- Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 33% 29 shares
- Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 33% 33 shares