No position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $196.63
- Potential profit
- $196.63
- User PnL
- -$175
Polymarket Trader
norisknorari
0x8478e39121b743423081b8a866fb0531a46af236
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $173.61
- Realized PnL
- $193.09
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $99.79
- Potential payout
- $116.04
- Potential profit
- $16.25
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $73.82
- Potential payout
- $78
- Potential profit
- $4.17
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$1.18
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.02
- Potential profit
- $38.02
- User PnL
- -$9.91
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.09
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.69
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.29
No position
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.81
No position
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.94
No position
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.82
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.29
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.24
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.72
Yes position
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.18
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.32
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.15
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.25
No position
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.24
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.96
No position
US strikes Nigeria by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.23
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.96
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.47
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.81
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$9.26
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$12.39
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 86.2% 116.04 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 96.2% 78 shares
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Yes 0.1% 190.47 shares
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Yes 2.1% 190.48 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No 25.1% 96.5 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No 91.6% 96.49 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 99.8% 171.62 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 29% 37.03 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No 64.8% 192.99 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 93% 107.53 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No 97.8% 197.36 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No 76% 197.37 shares