Yes position
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $6.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $93.5
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Polymarket Trader
0x847e...8559
0x847ee637e20c23cbd4ee567a947ce461fc998559
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $193.04
- Realized PnL
- $63.58
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.4%
- Current value
- $9.89
- Potential payout
- $48.4
- Potential profit
- $38.51
- Multiplier
- 4.89x
- User PnL
- -$1.78
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $8.76
- Potential payout
- $15.5
- Potential profit
- $6.74
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$1.32
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $13
- Potential payout
- $15.03
- Potential profit
- $2.03
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $2.93
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $10.59
- Potential payout
- $11.83
- Potential profit
- $1.24
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $11.55
- Potential payout
- $11.56
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $10.22
- Potential payout
- $11.29
- Potential profit
- $1.07
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $10.98
- Potential payout
- $11.04
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- User PnL
- $0.93
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $10.91
- Potential payout
- $10.92
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.87
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $10.75
- Potential payout
- $10.81
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- User PnL
- $0.69
No position
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $5.16
- Potential payout
- $10.75
- Potential profit
- $5.59
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $9.99
- Potential payout
- $10.5
- Potential profit
- $0.51
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $10.46
- Potential payout
- $10.47
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $10.46
- Potential payout
- $10.47
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $10.27
- Potential payout
- $10.3
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $10.07
- Potential payout
- $10.1
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $8.02
- Potential payout
- $8.07
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $1.8
Y
Yes position
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 64%
- Current value
- $4.96
- Potential payout
- $7.75
- Potential profit
- $2.79
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $5.41
- Potential payout
- $5.91
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $5.13
- Potential payout
- $5.64
- Potential profit
- $0.51
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $4.99
- Potential payout
- $5.58
- Potential profit
- $0.59
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.9%
- Current value
- $4.96
- Potential payout
- $5.4
- Potential profit
- $0.44
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.78
FURIA position
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte - Map 2 Winner
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.8
Over position
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.66
Spurs position
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.41
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.06
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.95x
- User PnL
- $4.98
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- $2.9
No position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.37
paiN position
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31
No position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $1.07
G2 Esports position
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.96
HANJIN BRION position
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.83
No position
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
Team Secret Whales position
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.16
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
Yes position
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Under position
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?Yes 65% 7.75 shares
- Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5Under 30% 6.41 shares
- Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5Under 78% 6.41 shares
- Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5Under 72% 6.94 shares
- Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5Under 72% 6.94 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 13.1% 60 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 20.7% 8 shares
- Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?No 90% 5.58 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 98.7% 10.1 shares
- Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?No 91.9% 5.4 shares
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5Over 56% 18.01 shares
- Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 11% 30.69 shares