Polymarket Trader

0x8520696102dbd37B556ab06fc8Ac0B84b581eAC1-1772829985249

0x8520696102dbd37b556ab06fc8ac0b84b581eac1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $158.81
Realized PnL: $63.25
Win rate: 40%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 5
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$5

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$5

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $850.08
Potential profit: $850.08
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $80.38
Potential payout: $574.14
Potential profit: $493.76
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$93.62

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $117.86
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $5

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $140.48
Potential profit: $140.48
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $20.92
Potential payout: $126.8
Potential profit: $105.88
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$4.08

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$17

Yes position

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $85
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $4.06
Potential payout: $81.97
Potential profit: $77.91
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $61.43
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$5

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.17
Potential profit: $52.17
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.51
Potential profit: $51.51
User PnL: -$12.63

Yes position

Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.85
Potential profit: $47.85
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.43
Potential profit: $33.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $2.08
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $14.58
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$2.92

No position

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $13.49
Potential payout: $15.69
Potential profit: $2.2
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $2.88
Potential payout: $14.03
Potential profit: $11.15
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$2.12

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $154.77

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will "The Bride!" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$10.19

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$76.33

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 14% 142.86 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 6% 83.33 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 11.5% 52.17 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 11.1% 688.12 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 34.1% 362.55 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 55.2% 362.55 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 22% 68.18 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 93% 230.94 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 27% 325.93 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 30.2% 297.37 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 27% 255.56 shares
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

No 0.2% 2,500 shares