Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $8.54
- Potential payout
- $589.15
- Potential profit
- $580.61
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$11.46
Polymarket Trader
user20260127
0x856f3a22368a9e33aee5f45cbc11a66d4d5d2f64
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $394.61
- Realized PnL
- $358.6
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $148.15
- Potential profit
- $148.15
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
Ends Jan 3, 2027- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $56.49
- Potential payout
- $97.4
- Potential profit
- $40.91
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- $36.49
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $80.17
- Potential payout
- $91.63
- Potential profit
- $11.45
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $20.17
Yes position
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75.18
- Potential profit
- $75.18
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65.81
- Potential profit
- $65.81
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65.12
- Potential profit
- $65.12
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.52
- Potential profit
- $64.52
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.1%
- Current value
- $6.93
- Potential payout
- $62.73
- Potential profit
- $55.8
- Multiplier
- 9.05x
- User PnL
- -$13.07
Yes position
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $8.18
- Potential payout
- $60.61
- Potential profit
- $52.42
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$11.82
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.86
- Potential profit
- $58.86
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.63
- Potential profit
- $52.63
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $49.63
- Potential payout
- $49.63
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $29.63
No position
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.55
- Potential profit
- $42.55
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $8.07
- Potential payout
- $42.49
- Potential profit
- $34.42
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$11.93
Yes position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $40.82
- Potential payout
- $40.82
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $20.82
No position
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54%
- Current value
- $21.93
- Potential payout
- $40.61
- Potential profit
- $18.68
- Multiplier
- 1.85x
- User PnL
- $1.93
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $37.04
- Potential payout
- $37.04
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $17.04
Down position
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 2?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $34.48
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $26.44
- Potential payout
- $33.9
- Potential profit
- $7.46
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $6.44
Yes position
ChatGPT Outage by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $26.25
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $5
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $6.25
No position
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $24.12
- Potential payout
- $30.15
- Potential profit
- $6.03
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $4.12
No position
Kristi Noem out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.99
- Potential profit
- $28.99
- User PnL
- -$20
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.9
Yes position
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.16
No position
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31
Yes position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.98
No position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.51
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.44
Yes position
Will Epstein Data Set 9 be released before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.9
Yes position
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.9
No position
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.26
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.75
Yes position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.36
No position
Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30?
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.3
No position
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.85
No position
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.41
No position
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.41
No position
North Korea missile launch by February 14?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.41
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.69
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.57
No position
Will Trump sue NYT/Siena over polling by Feb 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.45
No position
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.92
No position
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
No position
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.32
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.32
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 70% 28.57 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 70% 28.57 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 57.4% 34.82 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?No 27% 148.15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 63% 31.75 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 58% 34.48 shares
- SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?No 49.3% 40.61 shares
- ChatGPT Outage by March 15?Yes 60% 33.33 shares
- Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?No 59% 33.9 shares
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?No 31% 64.52 shares
- Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 2?Down 58% 34.48 shares
- More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?Yes 59% 33.9 shares