t0x010

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $2.14K
Potential profit: $2.14K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$7.5

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $427.35
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.07K
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $322.35

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $386.23
Potential payout: $426.77
Potential profit: $40.54
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $34.12

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $45.89
Potential payout: $399.05
Potential profit: $353.16
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$33.92

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $254.72
Potential payout: $294.47
Potential profit: $39.75
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $36.81

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $244.7
Potential payout: $289.59
Potential profit: $44.89
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $53.57

No position

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $232.05
Potential payout: $266.73
Potential profit: $34.67
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: -$0.35

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $198.26
Potential payout: $255.82
Potential profit: $57.56
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$1.26

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $102.3
Potential payout: $240.71
Potential profit: $138.41
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$78.15

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $153.17
Potential payout: $212.74
Potential profit: $59.57
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $4.26

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $209.9
Potential payout: $211.69
Potential profit: $1.8
User PnL: $22.66

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $24.99
Potential payout: $199.92
Potential profit: $174.93
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$24.99

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $180.4
Potential payout: $192.43
Potential profit: $12.03
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $92.44
Potential payout: $172.79
Potential profit: $80.35
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$4.32

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $157.44
Potential payout: $159.44
Potential profit: $1.99
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $21.92

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $129.73
Potential payout: $149.97
Potential profit: $20.25
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $14.25

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $115.95
Potential payout: $126.73
Potential profit: $10.77
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $31.3

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 72.2%
Current value: $87
Potential payout: $120.49
Potential profit: $33.5
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: -$10.82

No position

Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $72.47
Potential payout: $119.78
Potential profit: $47.31
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $12.58

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $118.86
Potential payout: $119.46
Potential profit: $0.6
User PnL: $20.19

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $100.07
Potential payout: $117.04
Potential profit: $16.97
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $1.76

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $83.61
Potential payout: $116.94
Potential profit: $33.33
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $4.09

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $93.9
Potential payout: $107.32
Potential profit: $13.41
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $14.49

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $484.11

Yes position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $353.24

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $306.56

Yes position

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $182.44

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.43

No position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.23

Yes position

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $121.51

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4?

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.77

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.05

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $89.68

Seattle Mariners position

Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.18

Yes position

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $77.72

New York Yankees position

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.15

Philadelphia Phillies position

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.97

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.61

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.42

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.58

No position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.28

No position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.14

No position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.36

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.88

Yes position

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $220 in May?