No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Current value
- $152.35
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $947.65
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- -$120.65
Polymarket Trader
0x8683eEfA7771D2d86E155A3d8484cA0d57b9A547-1764505961280
0x8683eefa7771d2d86e155a3d8484ca0d57b9a547
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $329.35
- Realized PnL
- $119.74
- Win rate
- 52.6%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 19
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $95
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $905
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $2.38
- Potential payout
- $433
- Potential profit
- $430.62
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$13.21
Yes position
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $6.7
- Potential payout
- $326.89
- Potential profit
- $320.19
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$1.29
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $308.53
- Potential profit
- $308.53
- User PnL
- -$210.62
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $5.05
- Potential payout
- $252.59
- Potential profit
- $247.54
- Multiplier
- 50.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.87
No position
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $8.2
- Potential payout
- $213
- Potential profit
- $204.8
- Multiplier
- 25.97x
- User PnL
- -$1.81
Yes position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.2%
- Current value
- $59.47
- Potential payout
- $179.13
- Potential profit
- $119.66
- Multiplier
- 3.01x
- User PnL
- $9.47
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $149.99
- Potential profit
- $149.99
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.2
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.8
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Yes position
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.29
- Potential profit
- $38.29
- User PnL
- -$2.68
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- $98.13
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.34
BetBoom Team position
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs
Ends Apr 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27.24
Yes position
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27.2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.81
Team Falcons position
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.3
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.2
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.91
G2 position
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)
Ends Apr 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
MOUZ position
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$16.52
Yes position
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$41
No position
Will FaZe make a roster move before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$46.76
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?No 13% 60.3 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?No 26% 1,000 shares
- Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?Yes 3.6% 433 shares
- Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 2.5% 310.2 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 62% 10 shares
- Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 4.6% 2,889.3 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 19.7% 104.99 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 19% 104.99 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 20.6% 473.68 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 19% 473.68 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 10.9% 164.51 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 9.1% 164.51 shares