No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $2.28K
- Potential payout
- $2.67K
- Potential profit
- $386.96
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $1.4K
Polymarket Trader
ckwww
0x86974dde10087a6ff34978364ccd67dbea21190d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.52K
- Realized PnL
- $1.79K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $42
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $358
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$42
No position
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $145.35
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $44.65
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $25.65
Yes position
Will Hong Kong have between 200-210mm of precipitation in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $161.71
- Potential profit
- $161.71
- User PnL
- -$8.12
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$87
Yes position
Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $87.47
- Potential profit
- $87.47
- User PnL
- -$7.08
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $3.87
- Potential payout
- $58.14
- Potential profit
- $54.27
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.13
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $7.89
- Potential payout
- $57.8
- Potential profit
- $49.91
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$2.11
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Current value
- $3.37
- Potential payout
- $57.69
- Potential profit
- $54.32
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- $0.37
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.9%
- Current value
- $7.41
- Potential payout
- $57.66
- Potential profit
- $50.25
- Multiplier
- 7.78x
- User PnL
- $1.01
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $10.63
- Potential payout
- $57.6
- Potential profit
- $46.97
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $1.12
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $6.73
- Potential payout
- $57.3
- Potential profit
- $50.57
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $1.63
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.9%
- Current value
- $4.49
- Potential payout
- $57.14
- Potential profit
- $52.65
- Multiplier
- 12.74x
- User PnL
- $0.49
Yes position
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.18
- Potential payout
- $43.75
- Potential profit
- $43.58
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.83
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $1.2
- Potential payout
- $43.57
- Potential profit
- $42.37
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$4.9
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.48
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $43
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$9.52
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.71
- Potential profit
- $35.71
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Hong Kong have between 210-220mm of precipitation in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.57
- Potential profit
- $33.57
- User PnL
- -$3.9
Yes position
Will London have between 20-25mm of precipitation in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$2.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Jan 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250
Yes position
Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $210.34
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $163.03
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.5
Yes position
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $133.76
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27?
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.23
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.5
No position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.82
No position
Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.91
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56
No position
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.96
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.9
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $51.9
No position
Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.85
No position
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 23?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.69
Yes position
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.25
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.81
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- $24.81
Yes position
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08?
Ends Nov 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.25
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.81
Yes position
Will Hong Kong have between 230-240mm of precipitation in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.83
Yes position
Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.68
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on May 14?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17?No 99.9% 242.99 shares
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17?No 99.8% 350.05 shares
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 11?No 99.9% 725.96 shares
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 10?No 99.9% 729.94 shares
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 10?No 99.8% 600 shares
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3?No 99.9% 93 shares
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 3?No 99.9% 30 shares
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 3?No 99.9% 35 shares
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on June 3?No 99.9% 35 shares
- Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May?Yes 98.6% 798.36 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 94% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 87% 100 shares