Basilomo

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $440.15
Potential payout: $527.12
Potential profit: $86.98
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $17.79

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $258.44
Potential payout: $258.83
Potential profit: $0.39
User PnL: $17.45

No position

Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.4%
Current value: $125.73
Potential payout: $137.64
Potential profit: $11.91
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $4.04

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $100.05
Potential payout: $103.09
Potential profit: $3.04
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $87.03
Potential payout: $103
Potential profit: $15.96
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 49.6%
Current value: $50.84
Potential payout: $102.61
Potential profit: $51.77
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $0.84

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $88.5
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$5.5

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $2.85
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.15
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$9.15

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.35
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$6.35

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 79.4%
Current value: $78.83
Potential payout: $99.35
Potential profit: $20.52
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $24.83

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $64.19
Potential payout: $96.53
Potential profit: $32.34
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$22.81

No position

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $81.19
Potential payout: $81.36
Potential profit: $0.16
User PnL: $2.65

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $57.05
Potential payout: $57.69
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $51.65
Potential payout: $54.95
Potential profit: $3.3
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.65

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?

Implied probability: 41%
Current value: $16.41
Potential payout: $40.03
Potential profit: $23.62
Multiplier: 2.44x
User PnL: -$18.59

Yes position

Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $31.96
Potential payout: $33.46
Potential profit: $1.51
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $1.96

Yes position

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $13.67
Potential payout: $27.07
Potential profit: $13.4
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$0.33

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $20.88
Potential payout: $24.71
Potential profit: $3.83
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $22.01
Potential payout: $22.04
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $0.59

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $18.72
Potential payout: $21.28
Potential profit: $2.55
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$1.28

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $19.96
Potential payout: $20.06
Potential profit: $0.1
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $17.68
Potential payout: $19.32
Potential profit: $1.64
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.68

No position

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $14.36
Potential payout: $14.4
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $0.36

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.74
Potential profit: $12.74
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.6

Yes position

Will Sidemen's next video get between 2.5–3.0 million views on day 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.75

No position

Will Sidemen's next video get between 3.0–3.5 million views on day 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.37

No position

Will PewDiePie’s next video get less than 1.5 million views on week 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.4

Yes position

Will PewDiePie’s next video get 2.0 million or more views on week 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.79

No position

Will Sidemen's next video get between 5–6 million views on week 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.19

No position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.08

No position

Will Artemis II launch by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.83

No position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.54

No position

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Implied probability: 95%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $12.24

No position

Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.04

No position

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.73

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.46

No position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.26

No position

Will Sidemen's next video get between 6–7 million views on week 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.31

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 96%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $7.84

No position

Will Marques Brownlee's next video get less than 4.0 million views on week 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.77

No position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 95.7%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $7.69

No position

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.85

No position

Will PewDiePie’s next video get between 1.3–1.4 million views on day 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.82

Yes position

Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.46

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?