Yes position
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $159.56
- Potential payout
- $186.62
- Potential profit
- $27.06
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $9.56
Polymarket Trader
GreyD
0x86c2b406110cd3defc1c5461f041f36111d43816
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $256.33
- Realized PnL
- $373.73
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $7.91
- Potential payout
- $119.87
- Potential profit
- $111.96
- Multiplier
- 15.15x
- User PnL
- -$40.25
No position
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $112.8
- Potential profit
- $112.8
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.27
- Potential payout
- $76.92
- Potential profit
- $76.65
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.73
No position
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $51.85
- Potential payout
- $52.08
- Potential profit
- $0.23
- User PnL
- $1.85
Yes position
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51.9
- Potential profit
- $51.9
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.5
- Potential profit
- $50.5
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40.5
- Potential profit
- $40.5
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.83
- Potential profit
- $38.83
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $27.78
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.15
- Potential payout
- $21.74
- Potential profit
- $21.59
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$4.85
Yes position
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $13.97
- Potential payout
- $15.87
- Potential profit
- $1.9
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.97
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $11.87
- Potential payout
- $11.89
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $1.87
No position
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $10.75
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $0.49
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.87
- Potential profit
- $10.87
- User PnL
- -$5
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.69
- Potential profit
- $7.69
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.68
- Potential profit
- $5.68
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.59
Yes position
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.58
Yes position
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.25
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.19
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.61
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.94
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.23
No position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 6?
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.5
Yes position
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.37
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.95
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.37
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.24
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.29
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.51
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.87
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.63
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.7
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.53
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.49
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.47
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 23-March 1?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.36
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.93
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.53
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes 2% 29.41 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes 18% 16.12 shares
- Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes 53% 18.87 shares
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?Yes 68% 29.41 shares
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes 74% 67.57 shares
- Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?Yes 46% 16.67 shares
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?Yes 3.4% 40.81 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?No 9.9% 50.5 shares
- Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes 5.8% 51.9 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No 93% 10.75 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?Yes 89% 11.24 shares
- Timberwolves vs. ClippersClippers 84% 5.95 shares