Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.85K
- Potential profit
- $3.85K
- User PnL
- -$709.99
Polymarket Trader
ceres289
0x86f9430c01352b47946ebd9ea7c25d2bc0ccf0a6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $362.02
- Realized PnL
- $3.29K
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.98K
- Potential profit
- $1.98K
- User PnL
- -$48.05
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$193.03
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- User PnL
- -$370
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- User PnL
- -$250
No position
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $64.42
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- -$65.57
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$60
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $974.44
- Potential profit
- $974.44
- User PnL
- -$620
Yes position
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $754.33
- Potential profit
- $754.33
- User PnL
- -$113.15
No position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $507.49
- Potential profit
- $507.49
- User PnL
- -$381.46
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $68.33
- Potential payout
- $506.18
- Potential profit
- $437.85
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$72.58
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $438.83
- Potential profit
- $438.83
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $27.01
- Potential payout
- $270.14
- Potential profit
- $243.12
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$72.99
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $202.25
- Potential payout
- $224.72
- Potential profit
- $22.47
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $2.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $745.4
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $717.6
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $571.89
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $309.7
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $191.57
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.7
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.99
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.18
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.44
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.15
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.38
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.25
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.89
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $38.13
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.71
No position
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.37
No position
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.22
Yes position
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.89
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.86
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.89
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $8.49
No position
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- -$1.13
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$8.82
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11.76
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 89% 224.72 shares
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 37% 270.14 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Yes 26% 192.31 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes 13% 384.62 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Yes 19.8% 1,011 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes 12% 416.67 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?Yes 2.4% 1,982.78 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes 9% 555.56 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Yes 8% 1,204 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?No 7% 651.81 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes 10.7% 936.32 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?No 48.5% 406.52 shares