Polymarket Trader

Thaws

0x873ff8f1a5ba4537427b0c4ba9e5abb65cc6ca06

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $24.54K
Realized PnL: $6.09K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 7
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.6%
Current value: $16.85K
Potential payout: $18.02K
Potential profit: $1.16K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $369.33

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $4.33K
Potential payout: $4.38K
Potential profit: $45.95
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $629.83

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $3.09K
Potential payout: $3.66K
Potential profit: $566.99
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $91.45

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $234.27
Potential payout: $247.91
Potential profit: $13.63
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $32.29

No position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $33.18
Potential payout: $33.3
Potential profit: $0.12
User PnL: $1.55

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31
Potential profit: $31
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.41
Potential profit: $10.41
User PnL: -$2.81

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $794.53

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $546.21

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $519.35

Yes position

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $479.4

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $371.87

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $315

No position

Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $304.93

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $244.16

No position

Trump out as President by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.12

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.52

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.16

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.73

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.5

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.62

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.72

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.99

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.95

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 1% 413.42 shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14?

No 99% 5.36 shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14?

No 98% 18 shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14?

No 98% 43.64 shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14?

No 98% 89.64 shares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12?

Yes 3% 1 shares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12?

Yes 3% 30 shares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10?

No 13% 28.82 shares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10?

No 15% 71.18 shares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7?

Yes 59% 10 shares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7?

Yes 59% 15 shares
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 13% 49.17 shares