Yes position
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $3.88K
- Potential payout
- $4.82K
- Potential profit
- $940.72
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $2.94K
Polymarket Trader
0x87E7FCEE78E26DcE7d9604d73a1c24110641d0B5-1770804565016
0x87e7fcee78e26dce7d9604d73a1c24110641d0b5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.5K
- Realized PnL
- -$31.33
- Win rate
- 23.1%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 13
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $1.56K
- Potential payout
- $2.87K
- Potential profit
- $1.31K
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $887.26
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $20
- Potential payout
- $307.74
- Potential profit
- $287.74
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$49.38
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $18.84
- Potential payout
- $144.93
- Potential profit
- $126.09
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$51.87
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $6.4
- Potential payout
- $126.7
- Potential profit
- $120.3
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- -$15.5
Yes position
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.72
- Potential payout
- $76
- Potential profit
- $75.28
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$9.16
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.22
- Potential profit
- $22.22
- User PnL
- -$17
Yes position
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $4.91
- Potential payout
- $20.04
- Potential profit
- $15.13
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $2.77
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $12
- User PnL
- -$2.88
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.07
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.45
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $6.4
Yes position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.66x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.92
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.27
Yes position
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.12
Yes position
Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.42
Yes position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.2
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.4
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25?
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$13.11
Yes position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$24.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 23% 1,317.99 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 22% 451 shares
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Yes 76% 643.06 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 24.9% 1,100 shares
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Yes 87% 400 shares
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Yes 88% 401.77 shares
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Yes 89% 105 shares
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Yes 90% 8.6 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ETUp 80% 15 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ETUp 69.2% 7.22 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes 17.5% 102.11 shares
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Yes 18% 190.32 shares