Yes position
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $5
- Potential payout
- $909.09
- Potential profit
- $904.09
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$5
Polymarket Trader
pelios
0x8803015a1bcd8af8ff4ad5bb8aa48bf15aaae1af
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $69.04
- Realized PnL
- $338.64
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 6
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $713.04
- Potential profit
- $713.04
- User PnL
- -$125.93
Yes position
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $7.11
- Potential payout
- $526.32
- Potential profit
- $519.21
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$2.89
Yes position
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $13.95
- Potential payout
- $526.32
- Potential profit
- $512.37
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- $3.95
Yes position
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $7.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $492.25
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$2.25
Yes position
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $6.74
- Potential payout
- $434.78
- Potential profit
- $428.04
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$3.26
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $416.67
- Potential profit
- $416.67
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $14.43
- Potential payout
- $379.82
- Potential profit
- $365.39
- Multiplier
- 26.32x
- User PnL
- -$25.57
Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $2.31
- Potential payout
- $256.41
- Potential profit
- $254.1
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$7.69
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$14
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $11.76
- Potential payout
- $185.19
- Potential profit
- $173.43
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- $1.76
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$46
Yes position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$35
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.99
- Potential profit
- $59.99
- User PnL
- -$10.8
Yes position
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$35
Yes position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$7.9
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240.11
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186.12
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.2
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.96
Yes position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$14
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$138.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 10.5% 379.82 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?Yes 3.2% 1,347.86 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 17.2% 500 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 46% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 75.2% 500 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?Yes 14.7% 851.09 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?Yes 11.5% 347.86 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes 86.4% 121.14 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 96.8% 218.18 shares
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.4% 185.19 shares
- Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 2.3% 434.78 shares
- Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.1% 909.09 shares