No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $3.57K
- Potential payout
- $3.68K
- Potential profit
- $108.43
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $424.57
Polymarket Trader
Kokoel
0x88335703ac18e4dd4dd2119198f443c1d24f2393
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.26K
- Realized PnL
- $10.42K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $588.3
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $471.7
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $5.3
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $181.82
- Potential profit
- $181.82
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $125
- User PnL
- -$110.05
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $98.18
- Potential payout
- $105
- Potential profit
- $6.83
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $17.32
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$9.7
Yes position
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.34
- Potential profit
- $55.34
- User PnL
- -$44.83
No position
Khamenei public appearance by Friday?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $54
- Potential profit
- $54
- User PnL
- -$44.28
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $5.4
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $34.6
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
Yes position
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $0.39
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $5.61
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.44K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $883.86
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $853.84
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $843
No position
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $655.45
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $486.71
No position
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?
Ends Jul 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $455.73
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $379.02
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $349.2
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $347.81
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $316.37
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225.83
No position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220.81
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $219.03
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.13
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196.15
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $189.27
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.86
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.13
No position
Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177.77
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.06
No position
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.42
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.27
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?Yes 0.6% 2,838.46 shares
- Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 0.8% 2,077.07 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 55% 920 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 85% 599 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 55% 140 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 93% 239.99 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 98.1% 200 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 68% 599 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 85.1% 2,928.86 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 96.9% 3,360 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 83.3% 200 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 81.5% 85.93 shares