Polymarket Trader

mrtn08

0x8859b37cba475184ca073febac74c15c89bf22c0

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.16K
Realized PnL: $3.15K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 11.9%
Current value: $201.45
Potential payout: $1.7K
Potential profit: $1.5K
Multiplier: 8.44x
User PnL: -$5.15

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $395
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $13.01
Potential payout: $216.75
Potential profit: $203.75
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$1.24

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $159.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $40.1
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: -$20.9

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $198.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $1.7
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $99.55
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.45
User PnL: $1.2

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $66.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $33.5
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $6.5

Norway position

Spread: England (-1.5)

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $21.74
Potential payout: $29.99
Potential profit: $8.25
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $0.45

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $363.13

No position

DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $340.93

Yes position

Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.43

Yes position

Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $208.64

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.48

Yes position

Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.57

No position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.82

No position

Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.23

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.75

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.47

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.58

Yes position

Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.59

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.92

Yes position

Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.96

Yes position

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.98

Yes position

Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.84

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.93

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.04

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.5

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 10?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73

No position

Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.72

Yes position

DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56

No position

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.8

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.33

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

No 98.8% 182.68 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?

Yes 6% 30 shares
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5

Over 75% 20 shares
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance

Argentina 94.8% 5.6 shares
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance

Argentina 95.5% 175 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?

Yes 89.3% 30 shares
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance

Belgium 95% 100 shares
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance

Belgium 97.3% 102.77 shares
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance

Belgium 98% 102.04 shares
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance

Belgium 88.6% 50 shares
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?

Yes 76.9% 30 shares
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?

Yes 8% 40 shares