Polymarket Trader

liuruijin

0x88b3426bf74d59d838406de3e25872c7537bbad4

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.57K
Realized PnL: $1.52K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $2.9K
Potential payout: $3.35K
Potential profit: $453.92
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $21.14

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $994.47
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $35.53
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $65.07

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $117.34
Potential payout: $757.01
Potential profit: $639.67
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$146.99

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $299.73
Potential payout: $549.97
Potential profit: $250.24
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $169.9

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $24
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $76
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $2.2

Yes position

Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $62.5
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $23.89

Yes position

Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $19
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $81
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $3.06

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $56.23
Potential profit: $55.75
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$16.46

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 88.4%
Current value: $44.2
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $5.8
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $2.95

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.2%
Current value: $41.58
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $8.42
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $6.83

Yes position

Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $3.05
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $46.95
Multiplier: 16.39x
User PnL: -$1.82

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$42.5

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $17.24
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $32.76
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$11.76

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $13.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $36.75
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $1.4
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $48.6
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$3.1

Yes position

Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.68
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$1.57

Yes position

Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $29
Potential profit: $28.94
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$6.02

No position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$10.2

No position

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $9.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $10.7
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $12.18
Potential payout: $16.13
Potential profit: $3.95
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$0.49

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $13.95
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $1.05
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.8

Yes position

Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?

Ends Jan 16, 2027

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $10.88
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $4.13
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $12.97
Potential payout: $14.99
Potential profit: $2.02
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $2.32

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.24

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.38

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.92

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.1

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.2

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.74

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.48

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.07

Yes position

Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.71

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.41

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.14

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.1

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $40.9

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.08

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.45

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.67

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.11

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.4

Yes position

Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $24.57

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.5

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.36

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.71

No position

US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.46

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.4

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

Yes 24% 100 shares
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5

Under 91% 200 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

No 91% 10 shares
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

No 72% 10 shares
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?

Yes 78.5% 16.13 shares
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

No 88.4% 7.74 shares
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

No 86% 10 shares
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

Yes 55% 10 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

No 88% 10 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Yes 90% 10 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes 53% 10 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 58% 50 shares