No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $790.07K
- Potential payout
- $913.37K
- Potential profit
- $123.31K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $130.65K
Polymarket Trader
QuietRiskisWrong
0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $875.91K
- Realized PnL
- $776.51K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $792.68K
- Potential profit
- $792.68K
- User PnL
- -$26.79K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60.75K
- Potential profit
- $60.75K
- User PnL
- -$20.95K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56.31K
- Potential profit
- $56.31K
- User PnL
- -$44.33K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.6%
- Current value
- $29.52K
- Potential payout
- $31.54K
- Potential profit
- $2.02K
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $6.59K
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $23.05K
- Potential payout
- $28.11K
- Potential profit
- $5.06K
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $1.44K
Cincinnati Reds position
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Ends May 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21K
- Potential profit
- $21K
- User PnL
- -$19.52K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.84K
- Potential profit
- $20.84K
- User PnL
- -$16.75K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.47K
- Potential profit
- $17.47K
- User PnL
- -$14.91K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.29K
- Potential profit
- $16.29K
- User PnL
- -$8.95K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.21K
- Potential profit
- $13.21K
- User PnL
- -$10.38K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.91K
- Potential profit
- $11.91K
- User PnL
- -$8.22K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.45K
- Potential profit
- $11.45K
- User PnL
- -$9.47K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $10.75K
- Potential payout
- $10.86K
- Potential profit
- $108.61
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.73K
Pittsburgh Pirates position
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.38K
- Potential profit
- $10.38K
- User PnL
- -$9.14K
No position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $7.24K
- Potential payout
- $8.57K
- Potential profit
- $1.33K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $760.75
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $7.1K
- Potential payout
- $8.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $611.79
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.63K
- Potential profit
- $5.63K
- User PnL
- -$4.96K
No position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $5.08K
- Potential payout
- $5.62K
- Potential profit
- $533.75
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $446.68
Over position
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.63K
- Potential profit
- $4.63K
- User PnL
- -$4.26K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.59K
- Potential profit
- $4.59K
- User PnL
- -$3.93K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.24K
- Potential profit
- $3.24K
- User PnL
- -$1.89K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $3.1K
- Potential payout
- $3.14K
- Potential profit
- $36.09
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $701.83
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?
Ends Sep 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.46K
- Potential profit
- $2.46K
- User PnL
- -$1.78K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.08K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.22K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.41K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.73K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.84K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $36.64K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.87K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.13K
Pittsburgh Pirates position
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.17K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.72K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.15K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $8.1K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.06K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.6K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.22K
New York Yankees position
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.1K
New York Mets position
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
Ends May 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.19K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.46K
Jasmine Paolini position
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.39K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.37K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.24K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.2K
Athletics position
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71K
Cleveland Guardians position
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Ends May 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.93K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?No 15.7% 687.95 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?No 14.1% 1,000 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 18.2% 2,022.42 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 21% 600 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 19% 1,000 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 18% 1,000 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 19% 760 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 21.1% 1,000 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 30% 172 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 40.8% 1,000 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 46.4% 1,000 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 51.7% 1,000 shares