No position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$30
Polymarket Trader
alice_shinoji
0x88fac4b4c088ebf6b67401f79c0600893741a8c1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $184.78
- Realized PnL
- $5.09K
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.87K
- Potential profit
- $2.87K
- User PnL
- -$551.72
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.82K
- Potential profit
- $2.82K
- User PnL
- -$34.22
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- User PnL
- -$18.4
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $980.56
- Potential profit
- $980.56
- User PnL
- -$33.34
Y
Yes position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $184.78
- Potential payout
- $879.9
- Potential profit
- $695.12
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- -$89.43
No position
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$100
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15K
Yes position
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $640.3
Yes position
Will courts block Trump's tariffs before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $486.38
No position
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $285.7
Yes position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $231.75
Yes position
Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $212.3
Yes position
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $194.63
Yes position
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.31
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?
Ends Aug 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.87
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.9
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.96
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $61.29
Yes position
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $56.12
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.17
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.16
Yes position
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.67
Yes position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.1
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.82
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.36
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.34
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.76
Yes position
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get less than 60m views in first 24 hours?
Ends May 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.97
Yes position
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.4
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$26.13
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Yes 19.8% 203.9 shares
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Yes 33% 208 shares
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Yes 33% 208 shares
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Yes 40% 10 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes 69% 80 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Yes 88.9% 840 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Yes 72.8% 56.28 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes 39.4% 33.27 shares
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes 92.5% 662.07 shares
- GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026?Yes 0.5% 196.12 shares
- GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026?Yes 2.7% 196.12 shares
- GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Yes 33.5% 60.99 shares