theldentity

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $10.45
Potential payout: $59.72
Potential profit: $49.27
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $11.9
Potential payout: $58.06
Potential profit: $46.16
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $12.57
Potential payout: $51.43
Potential profit: $38.85
Multiplier: 4.09x
User PnL: $6.45

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $12.41
Potential payout: $49.64
Potential profit: $37.23
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: $6.95

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $1.31
Potential payout: $42.99
Potential profit: $41.68
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$4.15

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $38.28
Potential profit: $37.34
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$4.61

Yes position

Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $37.92
Potential profit: $37.35
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$4.89

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $4.28
Potential payout: $37.2
Potential profit: $32.92
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $36.87
Potential profit: $36.22
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$4.88

Yes position

Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $3.85
Potential payout: $36.68
Potential profit: $32.82
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$1.61

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $2.49
Potential payout: $33.25
Potential profit: $30.76
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$2.83

Yes position

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $11.36
Potential payout: $32.94
Potential profit: $21.58
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $0.49

Yes position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $1.72
Potential payout: $31.36
Potential profit: $29.63
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$3.72

Yes position

Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $2.63
Potential payout: $30.89
Potential profit: $28.26
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$2.83

Yes position

Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $11.58
Potential payout: $30.89
Potential profit: $19.31
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $6.07

Yes position

Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $4.99
Potential payout: $30.22
Potential profit: $25.24
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $30.21
Potential profit: $29.24
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: -$4.47

Yes position

Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $28.59
Potential profit: $27.69
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$4.56

Yes position

Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $2.31
Potential payout: $27.2
Potential profit: $24.89
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$3.13

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 18.6%
Current value: $4.71
Potential payout: $25.34
Potential profit: $20.63
Multiplier: 5.38x
User PnL: -$0.84

No position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $17.74
Potential payout: $24.3
Potential profit: $6.56
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $12.15

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $22.99
Potential payout: $23.96
Potential profit: $0.97
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $17.48

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $17.09
Potential payout: $23.74
Potential profit: $6.65
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $11.63

Yes position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $5.99
Potential payout: $23.48
Potential profit: $17.49
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $0.59

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.35

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.74

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.91

Yes position

Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.22

Yes position

Biden statement on Mystery Drones by Friday?

Ends Dec 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.25

Yes position

Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?

Ends Jan 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.58

Yes position

Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?

Ends Dec 21, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46

No position

Total crypto market cap over $4 trillion on Jan 20?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

Yes position

Will Grok be #1 Free app on Friday?

Ends Feb 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23

Yes position

$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?

Ends Dec 13, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.17

Yes position

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.03

No position

US Government confirms what Mystery Drones are in 2024?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

Yes position

Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV in 2024?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

Yes position

Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13?

Ends Dec 13, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.62

No position

Will Kendrick Lamar release another album in 2024?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48

No position

SpaceX 7th Starship Super Heavy blows up?

Ends Jan 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

No position

Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?