protonboy

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $22.54
Potential payout: $300.53
Potential profit: $277.99
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$9.33

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $13
Potential payout: $200.03
Potential profit: $187.03
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $17.09
Potential payout: $179.95
Potential profit: $162.85
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $20.43
Potential payout: $151.33
Potential profit: $130.9
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.97

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $10.2
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $109.8
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $16.63
Potential payout: $100.8
Potential profit: $84.17
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$4.86

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $8.51
Potential payout: $100.08
Potential profit: $91.58
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.73

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $8.5
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $91.51
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$6.75

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $88.5
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $12.31
Potential payout: $98.45
Potential profit: $86.15
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $5.47
Potential payout: $84.17
Potential profit: $78.7
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $8.81
Potential payout: $70.48
Potential profit: $61.67
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$2.13

Yes position

Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $3.71
Potential payout: $57.14
Potential profit: $53.43
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $50.84
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $50.83
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $50.83
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $4.44
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $51.11
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $3.01
Potential payout: $50.13
Potential profit: $47.12
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $4.75
Potential payout: $50.01
Potential profit: $45.26
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $50.01
Potential profit: $45.75
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $44.75
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $3.95
Potential payout: $41.54
Potential profit: $37.59
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.19

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $88.62

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27.31

Yes position

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

Implied probability: 11%
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $25

No position

Yo FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 40.5%
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $19.22

Yes position

Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.45

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.53

Yes position

Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $14.2

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $13.61

Yes position

Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: $11.21

Yes position

Will Base launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.86

Yes position

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.99

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.5

No position

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.64

Yes position

Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $5.4

Yes position

Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?

Implied probability: 23.6%
Multiplier: 4.24x
User PnL: $5.25

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 7.2%
Multiplier: 13.99x
User PnL: $5.2

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will National Citizen Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Danish People’s Party win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Gono Odhikar Parishad win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Jatiya Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Pacifica FDV above $1B one day after launch?