N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $37.5
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $24.96K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$12.5
Polymarket Trader
uraw
0x8a4ceea487d437f8ca48fde1533d09b61f6f2c4c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $16.8K
- Realized PnL
- $8.67K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.42K
- Potential profit
- $19.42K
- User PnL
- -$164.95
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.48K
- Potential profit
- $10.48K
- User PnL
- -$241.59
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $6.9K
- Potential payout
- $8.12K
- Potential profit
- $1.22K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $643.26
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $2.55K
- Potential payout
- $4.9K
- Potential profit
- $2.35K
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- $591.01
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $3.71K
- Potential payout
- $4.79K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $225.41
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $766.07
- Potential payout
- $3.93K
- Potential profit
- $3.16K
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $466.07
Yes position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $706.9
- Potential payout
- $3.45K
- Potential profit
- $2.74K
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$293.1
Yes position
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.6%
- Current value
- $304.04
- Potential payout
- $2.87K
- Potential profit
- $2.56K
- Multiplier
- 9.43x
- User PnL
- -$60.68
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 7.3%
- Current value
- $152.89
- Potential payout
- $2.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.96K
- Multiplier
- 13.79x
- User PnL
- -$56.1
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $2.02K
- Potential profit
- $2.02K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.27K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.91
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.82K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$653.64
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $1.35K
- User PnL
- -$85
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.29K
- Potential profit
- $1.29K
- User PnL
- -$154.86
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.1%
- Current value
- $193.2
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- Multiplier
- 6.21x
- User PnL
- $143.2
Yes position
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $54.52
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $993.95
- Multiplier
- 19.23x
- User PnL
- -$165.48
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $530.03
- Potential payout
- $552.98
- Potential profit
- $22.95
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $30.03
No position
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $412.13
- Potential payout
- $525
- Potential profit
- $112.88
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $62.65
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $362.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $137.5
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $40.71
- Potential payout
- $428.57
- Potential profit
- $387.86
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$49.29
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $20.62
- Potential payout
- $416.67
- Potential profit
- $396.04
- Multiplier
- 20.20x
- User PnL
- $0.63
Yes position
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $18.08
- Potential payout
- $416.67
- Potential profit
- $398.58
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.92
Yes position
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $39.19
- Potential payout
- $313.51
- Potential profit
- $274.32
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$15.81
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: Valencia CF 1 - 3 FC Barcelona?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $285.71
- Potential profit
- $285.71
- User PnL
- -$20
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.32K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $654.78
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $581.65
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $569.08
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $450
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $396.64
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $379.69
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $318.51
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $289.63
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $251.84
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $229.41
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196.09
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $121.42
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $100.59
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.57
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.96
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.85
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $96.15
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 25?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.71
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $86.39
No position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $81.13
No position
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $55.43
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- $52.5
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes 92.5% 100 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 90.2% 585.96 shares
- Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?Yes 12.7% 2,868.29 shares
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes 29% 3,448.28 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 0.2% 25,000 shares
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes 18.5% 5,280.77 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No 7% 1,428.57 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 72% 200 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 72% 200 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 71% 50 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?No 95.6% 5,481.79 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 72% 138.89 shares