Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $137.49
- Potential payout
- $141.67
- Potential profit
- $4.18
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $37.49
Polymarket Trader
Ayanokoji67
0x8a524bca5c742485c1ee2056735d1825e45bd74c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $179.88
- Realized PnL
- $178.77
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $19.41
- Potential payout
- $29.41
- Potential profit
- $10
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.59
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $22.98
- Potential payout
- $27.2
- Potential profit
- $4.22
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $2.98
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.08
Yes position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.97
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.39
No position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.14
Yes position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.63
Yes position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Will John Ternus say "ChatGPT" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67
Yes position
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.93
No position
Will John Ternus say "Tool" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
Yes position
Will Tim Cook say "Powerful" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
Yes position
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.51
Yes position
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will Tim Cook say "Tool" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will Craig Federighi say "Update" or "Updated" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.31
Yes position
Will Craig Federighi say "Ecosystem" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Tim Cook say "Personal" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Apple announce a new product line during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will Craig Federighi say "Apple Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
Yes position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.53
No position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.88
No position
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 0.2% 2,500 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 0.2% 500 shares
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 73.5% 27.2 shares
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 68% 29.41 shares
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes 99% 123.63 shares
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?Yes 70.6% 141.67 shares
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes 80.9% 123.63 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?No 99.3% 7.25 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Yes 99.9% 18.84 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No 99.2% 22.49 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Yes 99.9% 70.03 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Yes 92% 54.35 shares