No position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3
- Potential profit
- $3
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Polymarket Trader
nolan209oasis
0x8ac44bf5f6f11113dcc60485541b43e899d3f173
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $3.1
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.55
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.37
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.9%
- Multiplier
- 4.80x
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Netanyahu out by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 62.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 90.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No 96.5% 35 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No 96.2% 35 shares
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 98.6% 34 shares
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 98.5% 34 shares
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No 97.3% 35 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 96.2% 33 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?Yes 2.4% 86 shares
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?No 75.9% 2 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No 98.5% 31 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No 98.7% 8 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No 98.6% 23.28 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?No 97.4% 34 shares