Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.95
- Potential profit
- $16.95
- User PnL
- -$1
Polymarket Trader
0x8Ae5AC948CDd67ae99c2514A8CF265846a415cBb-1770236783497
0x8ae5ac948cdd67ae99c2514a8cf265846a415cbb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $39.63
- Realized PnL
- $30.72
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $10.3
- Potential payout
- $11.64
- Potential profit
- $1.34
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $1.3
- Potential payout
- $6.67
- Potential profit
- $5.37
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $5.4
- Potential payout
- $5.43
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $5.27
- Potential payout
- $5.39
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $5.07
- Potential payout
- $5.27
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.13
- Potential profit
- $5.13
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$1
Anthropic position
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $4.28
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.72
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.68
No position
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.03
- Potential profit
- $3.03
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.82
- Potential profit
- $2.82
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.2%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $2.71
- Potential profit
- $2.24
- Multiplier
- 5.80x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.44
- Potential profit
- $2.44
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.23
- Potential profit
- $2.23
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $0.76
- Potential payout
- $2.13
- Potential profit
- $1.37
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
No position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $1.82
- Potential profit
- $0.83
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $1.82
- Potential profit
- $0.77
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Spirit position
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.47
- Potential profit
- $1.47
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $1.47
- Potential profit
- $0.97
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.45
- Potential profit
- $1.45
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $0.79
- Potential payout
- $1.45
- Potential profit
- $0.66
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $1.29
- Potential payout
- $1.35
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $1.08
- Potential payout
- $1.22
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $1.19
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.48
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.78
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.69
Yes position
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67
Yes position
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 14?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Will Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 14?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.24
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.99
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.95
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.66
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.59
Yes position
FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa?
Ends Jul 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
Yes position
FDA approves Arcutis' Zoryve cream?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- FDA approves Viatris' low-dose estrogen weekly patch?Yes 85% 1.18 shares
- FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa?Yes 85% 3.53 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 74% 1.35 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 92% 5.43 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.9% 16.95 shares
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes 68% 1.47 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 85% 1.18 shares
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes 86% 5.81 shares
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes 85% 3.53 shares
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsSpirit 68% 1.47 shares
- FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr?No 33% 3.03 shares
- FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex?Yes 82% 1.22 shares