stupid22

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $163.48K
Potential payout: $174.38K
Potential profit: $10.9K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $647.13

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $139.43K
Potential payout: $140.41K
Potential profit: $982.9
User PnL: $6.52K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $74.93K
Potential payout: $75.26K
Potential profit: $338.69
User PnL: $1.2K

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $37.73K
Potential payout: $40.79K
Potential profit: $3.06K
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.76K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $36.55K
Potential payout: $40.38K
Potential profit: $3.84K
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $493.06

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $24.45K
Potential payout: $30K
Potential profit: $5.55K
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $147

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $21.69K
Potential payout: $23.26K
Potential profit: $1.57K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $52.26

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $20.16K
Potential payout: $20.63K
Potential profit: $474.59
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $114.95

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $19.45K
Potential payout: $19.55K
Potential profit: $97.75
User PnL: $328.13

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $16.86K
Potential payout: $17K
Potential profit: $136
User PnL: $994.18

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $15.5K
Potential payout: $15.59K
Potential profit: $85.73
User PnL: $302.16

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $14.9K
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $97.5
User PnL: $347.53

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $1.62K
Potential payout: $11.2K
Potential profit: $9.58K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$2.4K

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $3.72K
Potential payout: $11.11K
Potential profit: $7.39K
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$552.07

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 37.9%
Current value: $3.47K
Potential payout: $9.16K
Potential profit: $5.69K
Multiplier: 2.64x
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $2.98K
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $4.03K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$195

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $4.89K
Potential payout: $5.72K
Potential profit: $829.65
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $118.75

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $1.81K
Potential payout: $5.11K
Potential profit: $3.3K
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $25.55

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $4.97K
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: $370

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $87.49
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.91K
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$19.98

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $3.2K
Potential payout: $3.29K
Potential profit: $92.08
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $10.94

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $1.18K
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $18
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $98

Yes position

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$195.45

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $993.49
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $6.5
User PnL: $25.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.74K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.21K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $12.37K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.44K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.95K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.76K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.58K

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $5.25K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.08K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.78K

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.93K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.87K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.69K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.46K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35K

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.21K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9AM ET

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $990.33

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $939.19

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7AM ET

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $841.4

No position

Trump out as President by March 31?