Polymarket Trader

589985

0x8afbe0620e2e2007c680b28b12250531d4ca7f1c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.79K
Realized PnL: -$1.56K
Win rate: 0%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 7
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $636.52
Potential payout: $14.67K
Potential profit: $14.03K
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$229.76

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $433.83
Potential payout: $10.71K
Potential profit: $10.28K
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$367.08

Yes position

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.24K
Potential profit: $7.24K
User PnL: -$774.31

Yes position

Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.07K
Potential profit: $7.07K
User PnL: -$675.97

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.87K
Potential profit: $5.87K
User PnL: -$61.6

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.12K
Potential profit: $5.12K
User PnL: -$403.48

Yes position

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $242.31
Potential payout: $3.73K
Potential profit: $3.49K
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$332.69

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $474.99
Potential payout: $3.52K
Potential profit: $3.04K
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$52.77

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.29K
Potential profit: $2.29K
User PnL: -$110.8

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$120

Yes position

Iran Nuke in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$300

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.67K
User PnL: -$200.36

Yes position

USDT depeg in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.67
Potential profit: $999.67
User PnL: -$141.92

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $291
Potential profit: $291
User PnL: -$32.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10.22

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$78.23

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$89.99

Yes position

Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$154.58

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$341.33

Real Madrid position

Champions LeagueQuarterfinals: Arsenal vs. Real Madrid

Ends Mar 16, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$879.27

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Yes 15.4% 3,727.78 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?

Yes 15% 3,518.47 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?

Yes 7.5% 10,711.85 shares
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Yes 6.5% 2,204.64 shares
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Yes 6.3% 2,438.41 shares
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?

Yes 4.8% 2,999.99 shares
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Yes 5.7% 10,023.36 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?

Yes 1% 5,870.97 shares
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?

Yes 10% 19.35 shares
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?

Yes 1.8% 2,386.8 shares
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Yes 5.5% 6,165.35 shares
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?

Yes 9.6% 7,069.01 shares