Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $308.75
- Potential payout
- $650
- Potential profit
- $341.25
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$18.25
Polymarket Trader
aysupernova
0x8bd3a659144673c9c1955b76ac3803a67e8b5cf0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.36K
- Realized PnL
- $4.05K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $588.9
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $11.1
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $39.9
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $519.75
- Potential payout
- $550
- Potential profit
- $30.25
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $100.25
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $445.27
- Potential payout
- $450
- Potential profit
- $4.72
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $26.77
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$28.5
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $11.2
- Potential payout
- $399.97
- Potential profit
- $388.77
- Multiplier
- 35.71x
- User PnL
- -$76.8
Yes position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $10.72
- Potential payout
- $319.98
- Potential profit
- $309.26
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$190.17
Yes position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $4.5
- Potential payout
- $299.98
- Potential profit
- $295.48
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$64.5
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $299.98
- Potential profit
- $299.98
- User PnL
- -$95.99
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $61.25
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $188.75
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$13.75
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$52.6
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $10.12
- Potential payout
- $249.98
- Potential profit
- $239.85
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$32.37
Yes position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $166
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $34
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $17
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $183
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$53
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$128.8
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $135
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $65
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $99
Yes position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $60.99
- Potential payout
- $199.96
- Potential profit
- $138.97
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$54.99
Yes position
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $16.2
- Potential payout
- $179.99
- Potential profit
- $163.79
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$51
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $8.92
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $141.08
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$7.58
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $149.93
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$11.93
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $149.99
- Potential profit
- $149.99
- User PnL
- -$53.99
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $140
- User PnL
- -$17.7
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$62
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $383.95
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $307.96
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $258.3
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237.58
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $224.03
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $211.31
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $193.99
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $153.65
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.87
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.18
Yes position
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.1
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.1
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $142.86
No position
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 3?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.5
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.27
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.4
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.47
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.96
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes 84.6% 150 shares
- Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?Yes 64% 27 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No 91.5% 67.14 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes 51% 143 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes 21% 1.63 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes 91.3% 499.94 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?No 8.3% 100 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?No 90% 300 shares
- Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?No 99.8% 500 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?No 94.8% 136 shares
- Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?No 94% 400 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?No 55% 50 shares