Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $9.23K
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $40.78K
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $475
Polymarket Trader
mm4ker
0x8c57f67ac7cc69a4cf96be5747cb2ed63dc9f939
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $95.75K
- Realized PnL
- $83.3K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $1.33K
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $48.68K
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- $75
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $2.83K
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $47.18K
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- $225
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $305.8
- Potential payout
- $32.19K
- Potential profit
- $31.88K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$2.82K
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.8%
- Current value
- $2.16K
- Potential payout
- $27.64K
- Potential profit
- $25.49K
- Multiplier
- 12.82x
- User PnL
- -$2.85K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.39K
- Potential profit
- $15.39K
- User PnL
- -$757.5
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $11.48K
- Potential payout
- $14.26K
- Potential profit
- $2.78K
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$1.03K
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $13.51K
- Potential payout
- $13.59K
- Potential profit
- $74.73
- User PnL
- $1.51K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.4%
- Current value
- $1.82K
- Potential payout
- $10.46K
- Potential profit
- $8.64K
- Multiplier
- 5.75x
- User PnL
- -$446.28
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $5.02K
- Potential payout
- $10.35K
- Potential profit
- $5.33K
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$134.09
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.2%
- Current value
- $3.92K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $6.08K
- Multiplier
- 2.55x
- User PnL
- $2.37K
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $7.67K
- Potential payout
- $7.68K
- Potential profit
- $3.84
- User PnL
- $563.56
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $5.91K
- Potential payout
- $6.75K
- Potential profit
- $843.75
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $303.75
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $1.86K
- Potential payout
- $5.71K
- Potential profit
- $3.86K
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- -$142.85
No position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.9%
- Current value
- $5.15K
- Potential payout
- $5.61K
- Potential profit
- $456.84
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $148.55
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $1.2K
- Potential payout
- $5.57K
- Potential profit
- $4.37K
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$305.83
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.9%
- Current value
- $879.28
- Potential payout
- $5.55K
- Potential profit
- $4.67K
- Multiplier
- 6.31x
- User PnL
- $278.29
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $5.03K
- Potential payout
- $5.3K
- Potential profit
- $267.57
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $876.99
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.6%
- Current value
- $1.24K
- Potential payout
- $4.85K
- Potential profit
- $3.61K
- Multiplier
- 3.91x
- User PnL
- -$1.76K
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $4.3K
- Potential payout
- $4.65K
- Potential profit
- $348.85
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.95K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $4.14K
- Potential payout
- $4.16K
- Potential profit
- $10.39
- User PnL
- $114.82
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69%
- Current value
- $2.65K
- Potential payout
- $3.84K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- Multiplier
- 1.45x
- User PnL
- -$112.82
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.4%
- Current value
- $2.23K
- Potential payout
- $3.63K
- Potential profit
- $1.4K
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $1.91K
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.59K
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$192.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.15K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.4K
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.72K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.49K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.18K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.03K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.88K
Yes position
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.43K
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.31K
No position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28K
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23K
Alexander Zverev position
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.14K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.05K
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.82K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
No position
Kash Patel out by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
Yes position
Will Rochdale AFC win on 2026-05-03?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.69K
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.64K
No position
Kash Patel out by April 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.59K
Yes position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?No 90.3% 1,107.49 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 10.8% 1,861.11 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 10.9% 3,686.41 shares
- Will England win on 2026-06-17?No 1% 2,699.97 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1,850 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 94.9% 421.54 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 93.6% 2,135.94 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 99.9% 4,000 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 93.1% 3,220.73 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?No 93% 2,500 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 50% 48.84 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.8% 800 shares