HR123456

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $16.03
Potential payout: $69.68
Potential profit: $53.65
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: -$24.76

Yes position

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.95
Potential profit: $54.95
User PnL: -$6.5

Yes position

Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $28.49
Potential payout: $49.55
Potential profit: $21.06
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $3.1

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $13.07
Potential payout: $36.31
Potential profit: $23.24
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: -$0.36

No position

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.22
Potential profit: $36.22
User PnL: -$22.69

Yes position

Will Walmart acquire TikTok?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.97
Potential profit: $35.97
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $15.42
Potential payout: $30.54
Potential profit: $15.12
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $1.99

Yes position

Will Fenerbahçe win the Süper Lig?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.76
Potential profit: $29.76
User PnL: -$5.06

Yes position

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.75
Potential profit: $23.75
User PnL: -$9.98

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $11.09
Potential payout: $21.54
Potential profit: $10.45
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $3.61
Potential payout: $21.23
Potential profit: $17.62
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$2.18

Yes position

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $2.87
Potential payout: $19.76
Potential profit: $16.89
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$2.07

Yes position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $4.83
Potential payout: $19.73
Potential profit: $14.9
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$5.12

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $10.83
Potential payout: $19.52
Potential profit: $8.69
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$0.49

Yes position

Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.19
Potential profit: $18.19
User PnL: -$7.4

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $9.84
Potential payout: $17.73
Potential profit: $7.89
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$1.48

Yes position

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.32
Potential profit: $17.32
User PnL: -$8.87

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $7.78
Potential payout: $17.09
Potential profit: $9.31
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $1.45

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $6.33
Potential payout: $14.56
Potential profit: $8.23
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 29.3%
Current value: $3.55
Potential payout: $12.11
Potential profit: $8.56
Multiplier: 3.41x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $6.86
Potential payout: $11.34
Potential profit: $4.48
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $1.87

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $4.94
Potential payout: $11.09
Potential profit: $6.16
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$0.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.73

Yes position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.48

Yes position

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.67

No position

Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.27

No position

BitBoy convicted?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.03

Yes position

Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.53

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.69

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.32

Yes position

Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.83

Yes position

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

Yes position

No one announced as next James Bond?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.39

No position

Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.3

No position

Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22

No position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.15

No position

Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01

No position

Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1

No position

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.88

No position

Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?